When will the COVID -19 Ends? when will coronavirus be over,when will quarantine end

When will the COVID -19 Ends? when will coronavirus be over,when will quarantine end

When will the COVID -19 Ends?


The COVID-19 virus has been the one thingon everyone’s minds since the start of 2020, as what seemed like an isolated incident quicklyspiralled into a global disaster, infecting – at the time of this writing, March 31st,2020 – close to a million people. It’s physically impossible to go to anyreputable news source and not be bombarded with anxiety-inducing headlines about thelatest infection numbers and death tolls. The question has probably crossed your mind:Isn’t there more we can do? How and when is this nightmare likely to end? Well, based on the opinions of the world’sleading experts, we hope to provide you with some answers to those questions today. Science writer Ed Yong, who wrote an articleover two years ago explaining why a global pandemic was basically unavoidable, has saidthat there are three potential ways the pandemic can come to an end:

The unlikely way, thedangerous way, and the long way. Yong posits that the unlikely way would involveall the world’s nations suddenly cleaning up their act, and simultaneously getting theirviral situations under control through a mix of strong quarantine measures and mass-testingrollouts, much like the 2003 SARS outbreak. Considering how far the situation has escalatedalready, and the poor job many major world powers have done in both preparing for andthen controlling the spread, this particular scenario feels more like a pipe dream thana viable choice. Take the US, one of the most developed andprosperous nations in the world, which has become the global epicentre for the pandemic. All predictive models created prior to theactual pandemic took it as a given that the US would quickly create and widely distributean effective viral test, which is the foundation of any successful pandemic response.

 The US hasn’t done that testing and as oftoday, doesn’t look to have a plan in place for making tests available to a large segmentof the population. While Italy and Spain have been ravaged byCOVID-19, for the US, the worst is yet to come. The US has a much higher population than Italy,but fewer hospital beds per capita. Many models predict that deaths and infectionswill peak in April, possibly overloading the healthcare system, but this model relies onthe assumption that all Americans will be observing quarantine or social distancingmeasures. At the time of this writing, President Trumphas not ordered a national quarantine, and many US citizens still aren’t taking thesocial distancing measures seriously. In other words, things seem bad now, but aneven worse disaster is coming down the track.

The second possibility for how the COVID-19pandemic might end is also the fastest, but it will also come with some pretty horrificcosts. You may have heard the term “herd immunity”thrown around lately. This refers to allowing the infection to spread,either intentionally or not, with the assumption that those who recover will develop the properantibodies to fight off the virus and become immune, protecting the overall population. This is essentially the epidemiological equivalentof allowing a fire to burn itself out. The problem with this kind of approach isthat allowing a fire to burn itself out will often leave the world with little left toburn. If this approach was taken – as the UK governmentinitially intended to do – millions would die in the US alone, with tens of millionsworldwide. The third scenario is the most realistic,and will cause the least collateral damage to human life, but it will also mean it’llbe far longer before society as we know it will return to normal. The general idea is that we will have to continuekeeping up social distancing and quarantine measures, putting greater focus on areas whereoutbreaks flare up, until an effective vaccine can be developed. It’ll basically be like treating the outbreakas a whole the same way as one would treat a single case of COVID-19: Treating the conditionsymptomatically while the immune system fights off the disease. While this may seem straightforward on paper,it’s actually quite an intense process. Not only will infections continue to occuracross the globe during this elongated period, many vulnerable people will die as a result. Sadly, the fact that more people will dieas a result of COVID-19 is inevitable at this point. The key at this stage is minimizing how manyof those deaths occur.

 The actual creation of the vaccine will alsotake quite some time – when factoring in testing, development, and distribution, toget full coverage it will likely take from a year to eighteen months. During that time, it’s likely that the worldeconomy will take a considerable hit as a result of increased consumer caution undersocial distancing measures. Goldman Sachs recently forecasted that therewould be a 6.2% decline in US GDP as a result of the outbreak, the biggest drop since theGreat Depression. Experts state that this won’t mean two yearsof continuous lockdown – it’ll be more like several burst-like periods of socialdistancing. The legacy of COVID-19 is likely to lingerover the world for years to come, with millions of people losing friends and family membersas a result of the disease – though the legacy will be considerably less morbid underthis method than under an attempt at herd immunity. Just when and how exactly COVID-19 will endthough, depends on two factors scientists don’t fully understand just yet: the virus’seasonality and duration of immunity.

 Many Coronaviruses, such as the flu and commoncold, are seasonal – meaning they have a tendency to abate during the summer months. Whether or not the same applies to COVID-19will make a huge difference. The same can be said for duration of immunity– meaning how long a person retains the antibodies for natural immunity after firstbeing infected. Because the seasonal flu and common cold mutateso frequently, the duration of immunity is relatively low – typically less than a year. The SARS coronavirus of 2003, which was moresevere and deadly, had a considerably longer duration of immunity. If we as a species are lucky, COVID-19 willhave a duration of immunity more like SARS than the common cold, but for now, we canonly wait for scientists to collect the appropriate data. In the end, the COVID-19 virus will only bedefeated by outlasting it and attempting to minimize the damage it can do to people andsociety in the meantime.

There’s no magic silver bullet to solvethis situation – only conscientious and responsible personal choices, mixed with sensiblegovernment policy and vaccine development. When the COVID-19 problem finally subsides,most likely in either late 2021 or early 2022, we’ll probably have to deal with a barrageof secondary problems – from a shattered or transformed economy to an internationalpandemic of mental health disorders like PTSD. But for now, while solutions are still beingdeveloped by world governments, it’s probably smartest for you to focus on keeping yourselfsafe. Remember: To keep you and others safe fromCOVID-19, your best bet is to socially isolate yourself and maintain good hygiene. The rest, we’re sad to admit, is out ofyour hands. Want to remain informed about all things pandemic? Go check out “United States Plan for a Pandemic”and “What If Ebola Infected The Whole World?” Stay informed, stay safe, and stay isolated.

when will coronavirus be over,when will quarantine end

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